Italy against the ultras

The Italian elections can destabilize Europe if the prognoses favorable to the extreme right of Giorgia Meloni are fulfilled

Today begins in Italy an electoral campaign that is crucial for its future, but also for the future of Europe. At stake is the possibility that the euro's third largest economy will be run by a right-wing coalition whose majority party is openly xenophobic, far-right and unapologetically national-populist. The September 25 elections come a long way from the scenario left by the elections four years ago, today with an imploded 5-Star Movement in the doldrums. The era of Mario Draghi has come to an abrupt end with his resignation, and the management of the enormous European funds could be left in the hands of Giorgia Meloni.

The favorite party in the polls is the far-right Brothers of Italy, led by Meloni. He emerged from the embers of post-fascism as heir to the Italian Social Movement (MSI), founded by the last leaders of the Social Republic of Saló under dictator Benito Mussolini. In the 2018 elections, Meloni obtained a scant 4% of the vote. Currently, he could reach 24%. He arrives at the appointment on September 25 after a year and a half in the opposition riding the discontent and in coalition with the far-right League of Matteo Salvini and with the survivor Silvio Berlusconi,now disguised in his Forza Italia as a moderate and pro-European among ultras (but a friend of Putin, as Salvini has flirted with him). The trio, to which the polls give around 45%, have agreed that, if they win, it will be the party with the most votes that proposes the name of the prime minister. Given that the electoral law rewards alliances and that the League would only touch 13% (and Forza Italia would hardly reach 8%), it could be Meloni who receives the commission from the President of the Republic, Sergio Mattarella, to propose the next head of government in Italy.

On the other side, the center-left will go to the polls disoriented, decomposed and divided into three blocks. The majority is led by the Social Democratic Democratic Party of Enrico Letta, to which the polls give around 23% of the votes and whose main objective is to become the party with the most votes. It is the only hope that can be harbored so that it can appear before the President of the Republic as the legitimate one in charge of forming a Government. Giuseppe Conte's 5 Star Movement, with 11% of the support, and the Tercer Polo center coalition , of former Minister Carlo Calenda and former Prime Minister Matteo Renzi, below 5% of the votes, are blurred without great possibilities to confront the alliance of the right.